A quiet week with loud catalysts.
Three Fed speakers, one earnings print that matters more than the others, and a CPI that nobody is going to admit they care about. The setup is plain. Here is how I’m walking into Monday.
Macro Snapshot
Last week SPY closed at 568.42 — green by a hair, but the tape was sloppy under the surface. Breadth was thin. Six names did most of the work. The 10-year drifted to 4.21% and DXY softened, which is the boring kind of bullish I’ll take.
The honest read: nothing is broken, nothing is breaking out. We’re in a range until something forces us out of it. That something is probably this week’s earnings, not this week’s Fed speakers.
This Week’s Catalysts
Six prints. Two matter more than the others.
| Day | Time | Impact | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MON APR 27 | 09:30 ET |
Williams (Fed) — opening remarks
Sets tone. Probably nothing new.
|
LOW |
| TUE APR 28 | 10:00 ET |
Consumer Confidence (Apr)
Quiet print. Watch the trend, not the number.
|
LOW |
| WED APR 29 | 08:30 ET |
GDP Q1 advance
Reaction usually fades by 10am.
|
MED |
| WED APR 29 | 14:00 ET |
FOMC statement + presser
The week. Plan for the post-2:30 reversal.
|
HIGH |
| THU APR 30 | 08:30 ET |
Core PCE (Mar)
The print everyone pretends not to care about.
|
HIGH |
| FRI MAY 01 | 08:30 ET |
Nonfarm Payrolls + ISM Mfg
Two prints, one minute apart. Stay flat 8:25–9:00.
|
MED |
SPY Levels & Scenarios
Five lines on SPY for the week. Two above, two below, one I won’t cross.
| Level | SPY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 572.40 | Last week’s high. Untested liquidity above. |
| R1 | 569.80 | Friday’s rejection. Most likely cap on a slow Monday. |
| PIVOT | 568.10 | 5-day VWAP. Coin flip — I do nothing here. |
| S1 | 566.60 | Wed close. First place I look long after a flush. |
| INV | 563.20 | Below this and the week is short-only or flat. |
Above 569.80: probable melt to R2. I look for the failed retest, not the breakout.
Below 566.60: a flush is on the table. I do nothing into the flush.
Crypto Pulse
I don’t trade crypto. I watch BTC because it’s the cleanest read on global risk appetite — when professionals are nervous, BTC tells the truth before SPY does. BTC has held the $64k–$70k range since February. That’s a ten-week range. Ranges break in the direction of least pain — usually when the most people have given up.
Not a signal. A read. If BTC gives up 64k on the weekly close, I’m smaller into SPY all week.
Mindset Note
Last Tuesday was a red day for me. I sized into the 11am pop, got rinsed at 1pm, and finished down enough to be annoying. I closed the platform at 1:15. Walked. Came back at 2:30 only to journal — not to trade. The journal entry is one paragraph and it says: I had no business sizing in there. The setup didn’t print. I was bored.
Boredom is the most expensive emotion in trading. More expensive than fear, more expensive than greed. It looks like patience and ends like a bad date. If you find yourself adding to a position because the chart hasn’t moved in twenty minutes, close the platform. Walk to the cafeteria. The trade will be there. Or it won’t. Either is fine.
Process Check
The week’s question, for the journal:
Did I run the card before I took a trade? Or did I take the trade and write the card after?
One honest answer per day, end of week tally. Five out of five is the goal. Three out of five is real and where most weeks land. Be honest with the count. The journal is the only person who actually knows.
For the friend on a 12-hour shift who hasn’t read a market note in a year. No tracking, no list, just a link.
Not financial advice. Educational content reflects the author’s personal approach to SPY options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Options trading involves substantial risk including the potential loss of your entire investment. © Dark Pools Trading LLC.